Former Beekmantown student creates presidential prediction model

Us map background and Grant Moravac headshot



There are plenty of predictions as to who will win the presidential election. One Northern New York high school graduate built his own model to predict a winner.

Grant Moravec is a 2019 Beekmantown High School graduate who now studies policy analysis and management at Cornell University.

Since mid-June, he's worked to predict who is going to win the presidential election. Creating a model born from countless hours of research.

“I looked up some polling averages, plugged that data in, did it again, and then every single step I just tried to make it more of my own. Creating my own data, running some regressions."

The project, done all on his own time, predicts Vice President Joe Biden winning over President Donald Trump.

SUNY Plattsburgh Political Science Professor, Harvey Schantz, says Moravec's model is more than just which candidate wins the race.

“A website like Moravec's helps people understand the state and regional differences that we have in presidential elections. It also encapsulates for the public the outcome of many, many hundreds of state-level polls.”

Moravec says it's been hard to predict this election due to the added changes of increased mail-in ballots and COVID-19. But he hopes the model will shed light on the 2020 race.

“When there's all this craziness going on, seeing just a flat percentage can just make you think, 'Oh, wow! Things make a little more sense,' you know? That's one thing models want to do is make sense of a chaotic world.”